Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар 3-jild 3-son (2026) · 658-666-betlar

FORECASTING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH PROCESSES USING ARIMA MODELS

Turayev, Bakhtiyor, Тураев, Бахтиёр, Turayev, Baxtiyor

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Annotatsiya

This article investigates the application of ARIMA models, considered an advanced econometric method for time series analysis, in evaluating and forecasting regional economic growth trends. Corresponding models were constructed based on the dynamics of real economic growth rates and nominal gross regional product (GRP) volume of the Surxondaryo region for the period of 2010–2025. The stationarity of the time series was verified using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test , and the model orders were optimized based on AIC, BIC, and HQC information criteria. As a result of the study, ARIMA(0,1,2) for regional economic growth rates and ARIMA(3,2,2) for nominal GRP volume were specified, and medium-term forecast values for 2026–2031 were calculated. These models and forecasts serve as a scientific and practical basis for decision-makers in ensuring regional economic stability , maintaining employment , and planning fiscal-budgetary indicators

regional economic growthgross regional product (GRP)ARIMA modelforecastingtime seriesstationarityADF testinformation criteriaSurxondaryo regionрегиональный экономический рост

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Iqtibos olish

APA 7 
Turayev, Bakhtiyor, Тураев, Бахтиёр & Turayev, Baxtiyor (2026). FORECASTING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH PROCESSES USING ARIMA MODELS. Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(3), 658-666.
GOST R 7.0.5 
Turayev, Bakhtiyor, Тураев, Бахтиёр, Turayev, Baxtiyor FORECASTING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH PROCESSES USING ARIMA MODELS // Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар. 2026. Т. 3. № 3. С. 658-666.
BibTeX 
@article{bakhtiyor2026,
  author  = {Turayev, Bakhtiyor and Тураев, Бахтиёр and Turayev, Baxtiyor},
  title   = {FORECASTING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH PROCESSES USING ARIMA MODELS},
  journal = {Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар},
  year    = {2026},
  volume  = {3},
  number  = {3},
  pages   = {658-666}
}
RIS 
TY  - JOUR
AU  - Turayev, Bakhtiyor
AU  - Тураев, Бахтиёр
AU  - Turayev, Baxtiyor
TI  - FORECASTING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH PROCESSES USING ARIMA MODELS
JO  - Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар
PY  - 2026
VL  - 3
IS  - 3
SP  - 658
EP  - 666
ER  -