Agrobiznes, fan va texnologiyalar 4-том 7-нөмір (2026)
Buxoro viloyati bo'yicha ko'rsatilgan savdo xizmatlari hajmi va unga ta'sir etuvchi omillar dinamikasini iqtisodiy prognozlash
Тохиров, Жавлон Рахимович, Toxirov, Javlon Raximovich, Tokhirov, Javlon Rakhimovich
Аңдатпа
This article examines the dynamics of the volume of trade services provided in the Bukhara region and the digital economy factors affecting this indicator using economic-statistical and econometric methods. The study assesses the effects of the number of Internet subscribers, active social media users, and the gross value added generated in e-commerce, the content sector, and mass media. Forecast indicators for 2026-2030 are developed using a multivariate econometric model, parabolic trend equations, and Holt's trend exponential smoothing method. Pessimistic, baseline, and optimistic scenarios for the development of trade services are also constructed. Forecast accuracy is evaluated using R², MAPE, RMSE, MAE, and Theil's U coefficient. The findings demonstrate that the development of digital infrastructure, e-commerce, and digital marketing tools contributes to the sustainable growth of trade services in the Bukhara region.
trade servicesdigital economyInternet subscriberssocial mediaeconometric modelparabolic trendHolt's modeleconomic forecastingscenario forecastingBukhara region
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