Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт Том 4 № 5 (2026)
ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION AND CARBON EMISSION: INTERCONNECTED LINKS WITH ECONOMIC GROWTH IN POST-SOVIET
Rajabova, Malika
Аннотация
This scientific research examined the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in eighteconomies over the period from 2003 to 2024. The variables consist of GDP per capita, energy consumption, and carbonintensity. The study selected and utilized the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) model,which helped to estimate the relationship in the common, long-run model while heterogeneously accounting for short-runvariations across countries. In terms of results, the calculated GDP elasticity per capita revealed an interconnected,complex, and close relationship between the increase in benefits and income and the higher level of emissions (β = 0.6988,p < 0.001). Carbon intensity, the strongest and most influential determinant, revealed the role of production efficiency andeconomic structure (β = 1.0001, p < 0.001). Furthermore, because emissions do not decrease as population income orprofit levels increased, the empirical results did not support the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. The digits andunits in the dynamic analysis section show that the error correction term (–1.0342, p < 0.001) relatively faster adjustmentcompared to long-run growth, although significant heterogeneity across countries is observed. Overall, the results implythat achieving sustainable development in such an economy requires not only relying on economic growth but alsoimproving energy efficiency, technological modernization, and structural transformation.
CO₂ emissions, GDP per capita, carbon intensity, energy consumption, economic growth, transition economies, PMG-ARDL, Environmental Kuznets Curve
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