Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт 4-том 7-нөмір (2026) · 369-376-беттер
FORECASTING OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION INDICATORS IN SURKHANDARYA REGION USING THE ARIMA MODEL
Abdurayimov, Kamoliddin
Аңдатпа
This article applies the ARIMA (1,2,0) model to forecast agricultural production in theSurkhandarya region. The stationarity of the time series was examined using the Augmented Dickey–Fullertest, while the model parameters were identified based on the ACF and PACF correlograms. Model reliabilitywas evaluated using the coefficient of determination, information criteria, and the Mean Absolute PercentageError (MAPE). The absence of autocorrelation was confirmed by the Ljung–Box test, whereas the absence ofheteroscedasticity was verified using the ARCH–LM test. Forecast values for 2026–2030 were estimated witha 95% confidence interval
ARIMA model, forecasting, agricultural production, time series, stationarity, Augmented Dickey–Fuller test, autocorrelation, Surkhandarya region
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