Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт 4-том 8-нөмір (2026) · 672-677-беттер
TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS WITH POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR UZBEKISTAN
Toshniyozova, Marjona, Bekmurodova F.A
Аңдатпа
This article presents the core empirical component of a broader research on trade policyand economic competitiveness, focusing on the causal relationship between trade policy instruments andmanufacturing competitiveness in developing economies. Using a balanced panel of six countries (China,Turkey, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, and Vietnam) over 2004–2023 (119 observations), a Fixed Effects modelwith White cross-section (period cluster) robust standard errors is estimated, selected over a Random Effectsalternative by the Hausman specification test (χ² = 1025.36, p < 0.001). The robust model explains 91.78% ofthe variance in manufacturing value added (F = 120.61, p < 0.001). Trade openness is the strongest positivedeterminant (β = 0.098, p < 0.01), while GDP per capita is negatively significant (β = -0.0003, p < 0.01), consistentwith structural transformation theory; tariff rates, FDI inflow, and tertiary school enrollment are statisticallyinsignificant. Building on these findings and the comparative institutional experiences of China and Turkey, thearticle derives policy recommendations for Uzbekistan, emphasizing WTO accession, rationalized (rather thanblanket) tariff protection, efficiency-seeking FDI, and targeted industrial upgrading.
trade policy, manufacturing competitiveness, panel data, fixed effects, trade openness, global value chains, Uzbekistan
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