Innovation science and technologiy 1-том 11-нөмір (2025)
THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH ON UNEMPLOYMENT IN CENTRAL ASIA
Kungratov, Ilmurod, Jumayev, Samariddin
Аңдатпа
This study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic growth (measured by real GDP growth) andunemployment across the five Central Asian economies—Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan—over the period 2000–2023. The region’s transition economies offer a unique context where rapideconomic development, often driven by commodity exports and foreign direct investment, does not consistently translateinto proportional job creation, reflecting deviations from Okun’s Law. Using panel data techniques, including the PanelAutoregressive Distributed Lag (P-ARDL) model and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the research estimatesshort-run and long-run elasticities between economic growth and unemployment. Findings reveal significant heterogeneityacross countries. A statistically significant negative long-run relationship is confirmed, indicating that a 1% increase inGDP growth is associated with a decline in unemployment; however, the magnitude varies due to differences in economicstructure. Short-run estimates reveal substantial variation, suggesting labor market rigidities and mismatches betweenlabor supply and demand. Countries dependent on extractive industries display weaker job elasticity, resulting in “joblessgrowth.” This study contributes to the empirical literature by offering updated, region-specific evidence that can assistpolicymakers in promoting more inclusive and employment-rich growth through economic diversification and investmentin human capital.
Economic Growth, Unemployment, Central Asia, Okun's Law, Panel Data Analysis, P-ARDL, Jobless Growth, Labor Market Dynamics, Transition Economies.
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