Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар 2-том 3-нөмір (2025) · 940-947-беттер
ANALYSIS OF MODELING AND FORECASTING PRODUCTION VOLUMES IN THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
Sharipova, Saodat, Шарипова, Саодат, Sharipova, Saodat
Аңдатпа
This article analyzes the development trends of the chemical industry in the Republic of Uzbekistan, the dynamics of production volumes, and the possibilities of modeling this process. The study empirically evaluates the elasticity of production volume in relation to investment and employment levels based on the Cobb–Douglas production function. A classical linear regression model was constructed using statistical data from 2010 to 2023, and analyses were conducted in the Stata software. Regression results indicate that the growth in production volume is more closely associated with the increase in labor resources. Additionally, forecast values for 2024–2028 were calculated using an autoregressive (AR) model, demonstrating a steady growth in chemical product output. The results of the study hold significant practical importance for strategic management of the chemical industry and for shaping investment policy.
chemical industryproduction volumeCobb–Douglas functionregression analysisAR modelinvestmentlabor resourceseconomic modelingforecastingхимическая промышленность
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