Innovation science and technologiy 2-tom 4-san (2026)
ENHANCING FORECASTING APPROACHES FOR VALUE ADDED TAX AND EXCISE TAX REVENUES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY
Dusiyarov, Sherzod Kh.
Annotaciya
This article provides a comprehensive analysis of existing approaches to forecasting revenues from ValueAdded Tax (VAT) and excise taxes. Based on official statistical data covering the period 2020–2026, the study examinesthe dynamics of tax revenues and identifies the key factors influencing their formation. In addition to macroeconomicindicators such as economic growth, particular emphasis is placed on institutional and administrative determinants,including the effectiveness of tax administration, changes in tax policy, VAT refund mechanisms, and the impact of theshadow economy.The findings indicate that conventional forecasting approaches do not fully capture the underlying mechanisms oftax revenue formation. In response, the study proposes a simplified integrated model that combines both economic andinstitutional factors. This approach enhances the accuracy of tax revenue forecasting, improves the effectiveness of budgetplanning, and contributes to strengthening fiscal sustainability
Value Added Tax (VAT), excise tax, tax revenues, forecasting, tax administration, digital economy, fiscal policy, budget revenues
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